Game winner prediction
| # winners correctly predicted | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/16/07 | 290 | 222 (76.6%) | 214 (73.8%) | 214 (73.8%) | 207 (71.4%) | 201 (69.3%) | 193 (66.6%) | 179 (61.7%) |
| 12/23/07 | 177 | 130 (73.4%) | 137 (77.4%) | 130 (73.4%) | 134 (75.7%) | 120 (67.8%) | 116 (65.5%) | 117 (66.1%) |
| 12/30/07 | 279 | 217 (77.8%) | 210 (75.3%) | 213 (76.3%) | 203 (72.8%) | 194 (69.5%) | 198 (71.0%) | 155 (55.6%) |
| 01/06/08 | 303 | 222 (73.3%) | 205 (67.7%) | 204 (67.3%) | 195 (64.4%) | 192 (63.4%) | 196 (64.7%) | 162 (53.5%) |
| 01/13/08 | 310 | 205 (66.1%) | 204 (65.8%) | 203 (65.5%) | 189 (61.0%) | 194 (62.6%) | 183 (59.0%) | 180 (58.1%) |
| 01/20/08 | 312 | 228 (73.1%) | 226 (72.4%) | 218 (69.9%) | 218 (69.9%) | 208 (66.7%) | 194 (62.2%) | 188 (60.3%) |
| 01/27/08 | 318 | 229 (72.0%) | 219 (68.9%) | 213 (67.0%) | 204 (64.2%) | 212 (66.7%) | 189 (59.4%) | 189 (59.4%) |
| 02/03/08 | 318 | 242 (76.1%) | 226 (71.1%) | 224 (70.4%) | 221 (69.5%) | 226 (71.1%) | 198 (62.3%) | 181 (56.9%) |
| 02/10/08 | 318 | 211 (66.4%) | 202 (63.5%) | 201 (63.2%) | 189 (59.4%) | 198 (62.3%) | 184 (57.9%) | 185 (58.2%) |
| 02/17/08 | 309 | 207 (67.0%) | 213 (68.9%) | 207 (67.0%) | 204 (66.0%) | 192 (62.1%) | 186 (60.2%) | 180 (58.3%) |
| 02/24/08 | 311 | 230 (74.0%) | 211 (67.8%) | 209 (67.2%) | 214 (68.8%) | 207 (66.6%) | 193 (62.1%) | 192 (61.7%) |
| 03/02/08 | 285 | 221 (77.5%) | 208 (73.0%) | 205 (71.9%) | 211 (74.0%) | 200 (70.2%) | 175 (61.4%) | 170 (59.6%) |
| 03/09/08 | 162 | 109 (67.3%) | 109 (67.3%) | 103 (63.6%) | 105 (64.8%) | 105 (64.8%) | 92 (56.8%) | 98 (60.5%) |
| Postseason | 112 | 88 (78.6%) | 84 (75.0%) | 76 (67.9%) | 80 (71.4%) | 76 (67.9%) | 67 (59.8%) | 63 (56.3%) |
| Total | 3804 | 2761 (72.6%) | 2668 (70.1%) | 2620 (68.9%) | 2574 (67.7%) | 2525 (66.4%) | 2364 (62.1%) | 2239 (58.9%) |
| Expected | 3804 | 2965 (77.9%) | 2905 (76.4%) | 2854 (75.0%) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Score margin prediction
| Squared correlation coefficient | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/16/07 | 290 | 0.309 | 0.277 | 0.228 | 0.181 | 0.028 | 0.123 | 0.053 |
| 12/23/07 | 177 | 0.382 | 0.347 | 0.312 | 0.255 | 0.034 | 0.166 | 0.082 |
| 12/30/07 | 279 | 0.306 | 0.232 | 0.231 | 0.142 | 0.007 | 0.116 | 0.055 |
| 01/06/08 | 303 | 0.176 | 0.155 | 0.120 | 0.089 | 0.006 | 0.087 | 0.006 |
| 01/13/08 | 310 | 0.136 | 0.100 | 0.091 | 0.073 | 0.019 | 0.046 | 0.010 |
| 01/20/08 | 312 | 0.131 | 0.101 | 0.071 | 0.087 | 0.023 | 0.031 | 0.010 |
| 01/27/08 | 318 | 0.112 | 0.070 | 0.046 | 0.062 | 0.009 | 0.002 | 0.034 |
| 02/03/08 | 318 | 0.162 | 0.118 | 0.099 | 0.077 | 0.010 | 0.013 | 0.055 |
| 02/10/08 | 318 | 0.161 | 0.099 | 0.092 | 0.072 | 0.000 | 0.040 | 0.019 |
| 02/17/08 | 309 | 0.175 | 0.126 | 0.086 | 0.116 | 0.081 | 0.051 | 0.006 |
| 02/24/08 | 311 | 0.131 | 0.079 | 0.079 | 0.083 | 0.002 | 0.018 | 0.019 |
| 03/02/08 | 285 | 0.175 | 0.130 | 0.107 | 0.099 | 0.047 | 0.036 | 0.019 |
| 03/09/08 | 162 | 0.210 | 0.204 | 0.184 | 0.212 | 0.084 | 0.131 | 0.016 |
| Postseason | 112 | 0.220 | 0.218 | 0.141 | 0.176 | 0.102 | 0.026 | 0.007 |
| Total | 3804 | 0.207 | 0.166 | 0.138 | 0.117 | 0.017 | 0.058 | 0.029 | Combined plot |
x:act. y:pred. |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |