2014-2015 Predictive Performance


Game winner prediction


# winners correctly predicted
Rankings date # games AASM+HCA AASM ASM Colley LRMC0 APS APA
12/21/14 188 132 (70.2%) 132 (70.2%) 130 (69.1%) 136 (72.3%) 133 (70.7%) 119 (63.3%) 122 (64.9%)
12/28/14 322 241 (74.8%) 233 (72.4%) 225 (69.9%) 225 (69.9%) 218 (67.7%) 208 (64.6%) 196 (60.9%)
01/04/15 342 241 (70.5%) 239 (69.9%) 229 (67.0%) 225 (65.8%) 216 (63.2%) 210 (61.4%) 201 (58.8%)
01/11/15 328 229 (69.8%) 218 (66.5%) 214 (65.2%) 222 (67.7%) 202 (61.6%) 197 (60.1%) 205 (62.5%)
01/18/15 337 236 (70.0%) 229 (68.0%) 228 (67.7%) 229 (68.0%) 228 (67.7%) 220 (65.3%) 193 (57.3%)
01/25/15 329 236 (71.7%) 232 (70.5%) 225 (68.4%) 220 (66.9%) 222 (67.5%) 207 (62.9%) 188 (57.1%)
02/01/15 327 231 (70.6%) 216 (66.1%) 214 (65.4%) 215 (65.7%) 212 (64.8%) 203 (62.1%) 195 (59.6%)
02/08/15 333 216 (64.9%) 218 (65.5%) 217 (65.2%) 223 (67.0%) 223 (67.0%) 220 (66.1%) 175 (52.6%)
02/15/15 327 251 (76.8%) 253 (77.4%) 248 (75.8%) 253 (77.4%) 234 (71.6%) 221 (67.6%) 203 (62.1%)
02/22/15 327 228 (69.7%) 216 (66.1%) 212 (64.8%) 210 (64.2%) 209 (63.9%) 203 (62.1%) 182 (55.7%)
03/01/15 307 228 (74.3%) 214 (69.7%) 210 (68.4%) 209 (68.1%) 216 (70.4%) 194 (63.2%) 186 (60.6%)
03/08/15 190 136 (71.6%) 136 (71.6%) 138 (72.6%) 139 (73.2%) 130 (68.4%) 124 (65.3%) 112 (58.9%)
Postseason 145 96 (66.2%) 98 (67.6%) 87 (60.0%) 92 (63.4%) 98 (67.6%) 78 (53.8%) 83 (57.2%)
Total 3802 2701 (71.0%) 2634 (69.3%) 2577 (67.8%) 2598 (68.3%) 2541 (66.8%) 2404 (63.2%) 2241 (58.9%)
Expected 3802 2936 (77.2%) 2895 (76.1%) 2830 (74.4%) N/A N/A N/A N/A

Score margin prediction


Squared correlation coefficient
Rankings date # games AASM+HCA AASM ASM Colley LRMC0 APS APA
12/21/14 188 0.230 0.220 0.204 0.175 0.000 0.117 0.077
12/28/14 322 0.269 0.241 0.192 0.185 0.008 0.121 0.037
01/04/15 342 0.139 0.108 0.068 0.088 0.003 0.042 0.008
01/11/15 328 0.151 0.132 0.100 0.142 0.044 0.016 0.061
01/18/15 337 0.172 0.140 0.133 0.117 0.019 0.056 0.027
01/25/15 329 0.117 0.090 0.066 0.075 0.024 0.015 0.025
02/01/15 327 0.133 0.096 0.080 0.072 0.007 0.032 0.017
02/08/15 333 0.171 0.120 0.102 0.093 0.013 0.054 0.017
02/15/15 327 0.193 0.157 0.156 0.147 0.019 0.044 0.062
02/22/15 327 0.142 0.114 0.112 0.081 0.038 0.032 0.044
03/01/15 307 0.176 0.156 0.167 0.150 0.029 0.040 0.084
03/08/15 190 0.199 0.208 0.204 0.149 0.086 0.002 0.157
Postseason 145 0.111 0.127 0.149 0.135 0.128 0.007 0.053
Total 3802 0.176 0.148 0.130 0.122 0.010 0.044 0.043
Combined
plot
x:act.
y:pred.