Game winner prediction
| # winners correctly predicted | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/19/10 | 217 | 161 (74.2%) | 157 (72.4%) | 156 (71.9%) | 149 (68.7%) | 162 (74.7%) | 144 (66.4%) | 144 (66.4%) |
| 12/26/10 | 278 | 215 (77.3%) | 210 (75.5%) | 206 (74.1%) | 196 (70.5%) | 182 (65.5%) | 181 (65.1%) | 181 (65.1%) |
| 01/02/11 | 342 | 256 (74.9%) | 251 (73.4%) | 244 (71.3%) | 241 (70.5%) | 230 (67.3%) | 210 (61.4%) | 224 (65.5%) |
| 01/09/11 | 320 | 233 (72.8%) | 225 (70.3%) | 217 (67.8%) | 223 (69.7%) | 219 (68.4%) | 200 (62.5%) | 182 (56.9%) |
| 01/16/11 | 333 | 231 (69.4%) | 225 (67.6%) | 210 (63.1%) | 212 (63.7%) | 197 (59.2%) | 192 (57.7%) | 190 (57.1%) |
| 01/23/11 | 333 | 222 (66.7%) | 221 (66.4%) | 217 (65.2%) | 216 (64.9%) | 206 (61.9%) | 192 (57.7%) | 202 (60.7%) |
| 01/30/11 | 327 | 225 (68.8%) | 215 (65.7%) | 207 (63.3%) | 209 (63.9%) | 205 (62.7%) | 187 (57.2%) | 192 (58.7%) |
| 02/06/11 | 328 | 246 (75.0%) | 236 (72.0%) | 231 (70.4%) | 232 (70.7%) | 231 (70.4%) | 208 (63.4%) | 217 (66.2%) |
| 02/13/11 | 327 | 235 (71.9%) | 228 (69.7%) | 232 (70.9%) | 227 (69.4%) | 220 (67.3%) | 203 (62.1%) | 191 (58.4%) |
| 02/20/11 | 332 | 237 (71.4%) | 220 (66.3%) | 227 (68.4%) | 224 (67.5%) | 224 (67.5%) | 206 (62.0%) | 195 (58.7%) |
| 02/27/11 | 298 | 214 (71.8%) | 200 (67.1%) | 196 (65.8%) | 195 (65.4%) | 193 (64.8%) | 178 (59.7%) | 179 (60.1%) |
| 03/06/11 | 174 | 116 (66.7%) | 118 (67.8%) | 114 (65.5%) | 108 (62.1%) | 116 (66.7%) | 109 (62.6%) | 93 (53.4%) |
| Postseason | 138 | 96 (69.6%) | 96 (69.6%) | 84 (60.9%) | 77 (55.8%) | 83 (60.1%) | 83 (60.1%) | 66 (47.8%) |
| Total | 3747 | 2687 (71.7%) | 2602 (69.4%) | 2541 (67.8%) | 2509 (67.0%) | 2468 (65.9%) | 2293 (61.2%) | 2256 (60.2%) |
| Expected | 3747 | 2900 (77.4%) | 2858 (76.3%) | 2805 (74.9%) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Score margin prediction
| Squared correlation coefficient | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/19/10 | 217 | 0.261 | 0.244 | 0.210 | 0.202 | 0.061 | 0.095 | 0.097 |
| 12/26/10 | 278 | 0.305 | 0.294 | 0.255 | 0.220 | 0.011 | 0.116 | 0.102 |
| 01/02/11 | 342 | 0.233 | 0.174 | 0.144 | 0.109 | 0.002 | 0.091 | 0.028 |
| 01/09/11 | 320 | 0.185 | 0.151 | 0.128 | 0.086 | 0.002 | 0.082 | 0.012 |
| 01/16/11 | 333 | 0.151 | 0.115 | 0.083 | 0.093 | 0.003 | 0.031 | 0.030 |
| 01/23/11 | 333 | 0.156 | 0.093 | 0.070 | 0.077 | 0.016 | 0.021 | 0.032 |
| 01/30/11 | 327 | 0.131 | 0.098 | 0.078 | 0.060 | 0.005 | 0.054 | 0.008 |
| 02/06/11 | 328 | 0.139 | 0.132 | 0.114 | 0.082 | 0.010 | 0.038 | 0.032 |
| 02/13/11 | 327 | 0.167 | 0.135 | 0.112 | 0.104 | 0.011 | 0.060 | 0.018 |
| 02/20/11 | 332 | 0.175 | 0.160 | 0.146 | 0.098 | 0.052 | 0.035 | 0.053 |
| 02/27/11 | 298 | 0.154 | 0.124 | 0.117 | 0.099 | 0.039 | 0.030 | 0.056 |
| 03/06/11 | 174 | 0.092 | 0.093 | 0.076 | 0.116 | 0.006 | 0.005 | 0.065 |
| Postseason | 138 | 0.185 | 0.180 | 0.072 | 0.181 | 0.110 | 0.021 | 0.012 |
| Total | 3747 | 0.194 | 0.164 | 0.136 | 0.115 | 0.013 | 0.058 | 0.042 | Combined plot |
x:act. y:pred. |
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